Chicago Prediction Markets
Summit
Secure Registration
(online registration in advance required.)
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Wednesday, June 7, 2006
8:00am - 5:00pm |
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Some Media Coverage
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by Bill Saporito, October 16, 2005 |
by Olga Kharif, July 26, 2005 |
by Robert Hof, June 10, 2005 |
11/18/2004 |
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Australian Financial Review
by James Hall, August 2004 |
by James M. Pethokoukis, 08/22/2004 |
by Barbara Kiviat, 07/06/2004 |
by James Surowiecki, 06/01/2004 |
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by Ajit Kambil, 12/01/2003 |
by Hal Varian, 05/08/2003 |
by James Surowiecki, 03/17/2003 |
by Ajit Kambil, July 2002 |
Abstract and Benefits
What are
Prediction Markets?
Also known as information markets, decision markets, idea futures, and
virtual markets, prediction markets are speculative markets
created for the purpose of making predictions. Assets are created whose
final cash value is tied to a particular event, outcome or parameter (e.g., total sales next quarter).
The current market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the
probability of the event or the expected value of the parameter.
People who buy low and sell high are rewarded for improving the market
prediction, while those who buy high and sell low are punished for degrading
the market prediction. Evidence so far suggests that prediction markets are
at least as accurate as other institutions predicting the same events with a
similar pool of participants.
One of the oldest and most famous is the University of Iowa's Iowa Electronic Market.
It has been predicting the results of American presidential elections since
1988 with greater accuracy than polling companies. Prediction markets were
championed in James Surowiecki's 2004 book The Wisdom of Crowds. Prediction
markets are speculated to be useful decision support tools for corporations.
(Wikipedia:
Prediction Markets)
Who uses
Prediction Markets?
The list of
companies using prediction markets to tap internal, future-focused knowledge is
impressive. Microsoft, Google, Yahoo!, Ely Lily, HP and other top,
knowledge-based leaders are achieving fundamental advancements in KM with these
potent market technologies.
"...the idea of markets working within companies has started to seep out into
some of the nation's largest corporations. Companies from Microsoft to Eli Lilly
and Hewlett-Packard are bringing the market inside, with workers trading futures
contracts on such "commodities" as sales, product success and supplier behavior.
The concept: a work force contains vast amounts of untapped, useful
knowledge that a market can unlock. "Markets are likely to revolutionize
corporate forecasting and decision making," says
Robin Hanson, an economist at George
Mason University, in Virginia, who has researched and developed markets.
"Strategic decisions, such as mergers, product introductions, regional
expansions and changing CEOs, could be effectively delegated to people far down
the corporate hierarchy, people not selected by or even known to top
management." (Time Magazine)
More
resources:
http://kmblogs.com/public/item/106758
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